Executive Overview
The IDW Downstream Technology & Innovation Forum 2026 Advisory Board Meeting convened senior industry leaders to assess the evolving landscape of the downstream sector and to validate the strategic direction for the upcoming edition of IDW in Dubrovnik.
The discussion took place against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical instability, fragmented global trade flows, regulatory uncertainty, and concerns about tight margins in the future, all of which continue to shape decision-making across refining and petrochemicals.
A number of overarching themes clearly emerged. First, competitiveness in 2026 will increasingly depend on the industry’s ability to extract maximum value from existing assets, rather than relying on large-scale capital investments. Second, the transition toward lower-carbon operations is continuing, but in a more pragmatic, phased, and economically disciplined manner. Third, digitalisation, AI, and energy efficiency are no longer optional enhancements, but critical enablers of operational resilience and performance.
The Advisory Board reinforced that the role of IDW Downstream Forum must remain firmly focused on execution, operational reality, and investment-relevant insights, rather than high-level transition narratives.
1. Global Market Context & Geopolitical Disruption
Participants highlighted that the global energy market is currently experiencing significant volatility, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as broader disruptions to global trade routes.
These dynamics have led to:
- Supply chain disruptions, including tanker delays and rerouted shipments
- Sharp increases in crude and product prices, particularly across Europe and the United States
- Operational challenges at refinery level, including reduced throughput and storage constraints
Regional impacts vary considerably:
- Europe faces the most acute pressure, with high energy prices, regulatory uncertainty, and proximity to geopolitical risk zones
- United States benefits from relative energy security due to domestic production, although market and policy pressures remain
- Asia, particularly China and India, is experiencing refinery cutbacks and shifting export dynamics, further tightening global supply
A key question discussed was whether current disruptions represent temporary shocks or a new structural reality. The consensus suggests that while some volatility may ease, logistics, geopolitics, and trade route dynamics will play a more permanent role in shaping margins and competitiveness.
2. Strategic Industry Response: Flexibility, Autonomy, and Resilience
In response to these challenges, industry players are increasingly prioritising:
- Feedstock diversification and flexibility
- Regionalisation of supply chains
- Energy security and autonomy strategies
- Contingency planning for operational continuity
Refiners are moving toward more adaptive operating models, capable of responding quickly to market disruptions and feedstock availability. This includes the ability to process a wider range of crude types and adjust product slates towards market demand.
At the same time, companies are placing greater emphasis on de-bottlenecking and optimisation initiatives, rather than large-scale greenfield investments, reflecting both capital discipline and market uncertainty.
3. Regulation, Investment Climate, and Financial Constraints
A recurring theme throughout the discussion was the lack of regulatory clarity and stability, particularly within Europe. While frameworks such as emissions trading systems, carbon border adjustments, and renewable fuel mandates are progressing, their implementation remains uneven and, in many cases, uncertain at the operational level.
This uncertainty is having a direct impact on investment decisions:
- Delays in Final Investment Decisions (FID)
- Increased caution in committing to long-term capital-intensive projects
- Greater reliance on phased and modular investment strategies
Participants emphasised the need for:
- Balanced and predictable regulatory frameworks
- Financial support mechanisms, particularly at EU level
- Alignment between policy ambition and operational feasibility
Without these conditions, there is a risk that investment in European downstream assets will continue to lag, affecting long-term competitiveness.
4. Technology, AI, and Digitalisation: From Potential to Priority
One of the strongest areas of alignment across the Advisory Board was the growing role of AI and digital technologies in enabling operational excellence.
Applications discussed include:
- Predictive maintenance and pre-maintenance optimisation
- Digital twins for simulation and performance improvement
- Real-time process optimisation and energy management
- Supply chain and logistics optimisation
AI is increasingly seen as a critical lever for reducing costs, improving efficiency, and enhancing resilience, with some participants highlighting the potential to reduce turnaround times by up to 60%.
However, several challenges remain:
- Data quality and integration across legacy systems
- Cybersecurity risks
- The need for transparent and explainable models
- Organisational readiness and skills gaps
The consensus is that the industry is moving beyond isolated use cases toward integrated digital ecosystems, but prioritization of high-value applications is essential to ensure return on investment.
