During our recent technology panel at ME-TECH, our experts Fabien Lundy, Axens, Keith Couch, Honeywell UOP, Goutam Biswas, Chevron Lummus Global, Gurminder Singh, Shell Catalysts & Technologies, Manu Van Leuvenhaege, Sulzer Chemtech and Daniel Carter, WOOD discussed the future, looking to 2030 and beyond. It was not surprising that the conversation focused on the energy transition and how rapidly is it accelerating, shifting focus somewhat from integration strategies to decarbonisation and sustainability plans, and the recent geopolitical tension leading to a further focus on energy security.
We heard that by 2040 the global population will grow to 9 billion, with the middle-class growing proportionately causing energy demand to increase by 25%. 10 million barrels per day of additional hydrocarbon liquid will be needed to meet the growth in petrochemicals demand.
However, we see the impact of greenhouse gas emissions resulting in consumers asking for affordable, reliable, sustainable, low carbon and renewable energy.
It is a sizeable task, so how is the industry addressing this?
Recent investments, acquisitions and JV’s are paving the way and facilitating a myriad of initiatives in this regard. Co-processing with bio, renewable, waste and circular feedstock is increasing to produce synthetic fuels like renewable diesel, SAF and RNG, in addition to the opportunities in hydrogen. When combined with carbon capture, offset and trading, the refinery of the future is set to become an energy hub and carbon will be an asset. Looking more specifically at the refinery itself, the panel agreed there is a need for flexibility in terms of feedstocks and product slate, and there’s also a potential to repurpose.
When combined with carbon capture, offset and trading, the refinery of the future is set to become an energy hub and carbon will be an asset
‘Traditionally our industry is very conservative in minimising capex spend on the absolute solution, which in turn comes with constraints, and if we need to evolve, we really need to start working on the flexibility of our assets to make sure they maintain competitiveness into the future.’
We need all the key stakeholders, owners, finance, technology providers etc aligned before any decisions for repurposing are taken. Rather than looking to the past, we need to look to the future of where we need to be, whilst taking into account the feedstock availability, end product and location. Our risk tolerance has to change, how we explore new technology has to change, and how we apply it to our business model has to change.
ME-TECH 2022, Dubai: Technology Panel
The MENA region is export focused so important questions to ask are: what’s the consumer’s demand and how could these potential change over time? What kind of efficiency specifications are needed? Flexibility to adjust to those market demands becomes quite critical.
Collaboration has a huge role to play. For licensors, it is normal to try to understand the customer’s needs. The customer has a certain project, or problem and the engineers look at the portfolio of technology available, they come up with something innovative and you've got a solution. However, if licensors look outside of their own technology portfolios and collaborate, they will be better positioned to offer more efficient, more flexible configurations that ultimately, will better serve the customer. One example could be a collaboration on fluid catalytic cracking. Combine two very strong, proven technologies and all of a sudden you get a solution that is not only very efficient, but offers that flexibility to the customer to change to those demands. Now the requirement is for more gasoline, or to reduce the octane losses, or to move into petrochemicals, because that's what the market is demanding. These are challenging times, so rather than developing technologies from scratch, there is huge benefit in potentially combining existing technologies to deliver the solution and while partnerships and associations are not new, collaborations are perhaps more needed today than ever.
If licensors look outside of their own technology portfolios and collaborate, they will be better positioned to offer more efficient, more flexible configurations that ultimately, will better serve the customer
The discussion continued covering: the balancing act – how to decarbonise, diversify while remaining competitive, the role of policy and technology developments with a focus on scopes 1-3.